Quantitative easing
Quantitative easing (QE), also known as large-scale asset purchases, is a whereby a buys predetermined amounts of s or other s in order to inject directly into the economy. An unconventional form of monetary policy, it is usually used when is very low or , and standard expansionary monetary policy has become ineffective. A central bank implements quantitative easing by buying specified amounts of s from and other financial institutions, thus raising the prices of those financial assets and lowering their , while simultaneously increasing the . This differs from the more usual policy of buying or selling short-term s to keep s at a specified target value. to stimulate the economy typically involves the central bank buying short-term government bonds to lower short-term market interest rates. However, when short-term , this method can no longer work (a situation known as a ). In such circumstances, monetary authorities may then use quantitative easing to further stimulate the economy, by buying specified quantities of financial assets without reference to interest rates, and by buying riskier or longer maturity assets (other than short-term government bonds), thereby lowering interest rates further out on the . Quantitative easing can help bring the economy out of and help ensure that inflation does not fall below the central bank's . Risks include the policy being more effective than intended in acting against (leading to higher inflation in the longer term), or not being effective enough if banks remain reluctant to lend and potential borrowers are unwilling to borrow. According to the , the US , and various other economists, quantitative easing undertaken following the global has mitigated some of the economic problems since the crisis. Process Standard central bank are usually enacted by buying or selling s on the to reach a desired target for the . However, if a recession or depression continues even when a central bank has lowered interest rates to nearly zero, the central bank — a situation known as the . The central bank may then implement quantitative easing by buying financial assets without reference to interest rates. This policy is sometimes described as a last resort to stimulate the economy. A central bank enacts quantitative easing by purchasing, regardless of interest rates, a predetermined quantity of bonds or other financial assets on financial markets from private financial institutions. This action increases the that banks hold. The goal of this policy is to ease financial conditions, increase , and facilitate an expansion of private bank lending. Quantitative easing affects the economy through several channels: * Credit channel: By providing liquidity in the banking sector, QE makes it easier and cheaper for banks to extend loans to companies and households, thus stimulating credit growth. Additionally, if the central bank also purchases financial instruments that are riskier than government bonds (such as corporate bonds), it can also increase the price and lower the interest yield of these riskier assets. * Portfolio rebalancing: By enacting QE, the central bank withdraws an important part of the safe assets from the market onto its own balance sheet, which may result in private investors turning to other financial securities. Because of the relative lack of government bonds, investors are forced to "rebalance their portfolios" into other assets. Additionally, if the central bank also purchases financial instruments that are riskier than government bonds, it can also lower the interest yield of those assets (as those assets are more scarce in the market, and thus their prices go up correspondingly). * Exchange rate: Because it increases the money supply and lowers the yield of financial assets, QE tends to depreciate a country's s relative to other currencies, through the interest rate mechanism. Lower interest rates lead to a from a country, thereby reducing foreign demand for a country's money, leading to a weaker currency. This increases demand for exporters and directly benefits exporters living in the country. * Fiscal effect: By lowering yields on sovereign bonds, QE makes it cheaper for governments to borrow on financial markets, which may empower the government to provide fiscal stimulus to the economy. Quantitative easing can be viewed as a debt refinancing operation of the "consolidated government" (the government including the central bank), whereby the consolidated government, via the central bank, retires government debt securities and refinances them into central bank reserves. *'Signalling effect:' Some economists argue that QE's main impact is due to its effect on the psychology of the markets, by signalling that the central bank will take extraordinary steps to facilitate economic recovery. For instance, it has been observed that most of the effect of QE in the Eurozone on bond yields happened between the date of the announcement of QE and the actual start of the purchases by the ECB. History Precedents The US Federal Reserve belatedly implemented policies similar to the recent quantitative easing during the of the 1930s. Specifically, banks' excess reserves exceeded 6 percent in 1940, whereas they vanished during the entire postwar period until 2008. Despite this fact, many commentators called the scope of the Federal Reserve quantitative easing program after the 2008 crisis "unprecedented". Japan before 2007 A policy termed "quantitative easing" (量的金融緩和, ryōteki kin'yū kanwa) was first used by the (BOJ) to fight domestic in the . The BOJ had maintained short-term at close to zero since 1999. The Bank of Japan had for many years, and as late as February 2001, stated that "quantitative easing ... is not effective" and rejected its use for monetary policy. According to the Bank of Japan, the central bank adopted quantitative easing on 19 March 2001. Under quantitative easing, the BOJ flooded commercial banks with excess to promote private lending, leaving them with large stocks of and therefore little risk of a liquidity shortage. The BOJ accomplished this by buying more government bonds than would be required to set the interest rate to zero. It later also bought and and extended the terms of its -purchasing operation. The BOJ increased commercial bank current account balances from ¥5 trillion to ¥35 trillion (approximately US$300 billion) over a four-year period starting in March 2001. The BOJ also tripled the quantity of long-term Japan government bonds it could purchase on a monthly basis. However, the seven-fold increase notwithstanding, current account balances (essentially central bank reserves) being just one (usually relatively small) component of the liability side of a central bank's balance sheet (the main one being banknotes), the resulting peak increase in the BOJ's balance sheet was modest, compared to later actions by other central banks. After 2007 Since the global financial crisis of 2007–08, policies similar to those undertaken by Japan have been used by the United States, the United Kingdom, and the Eurozone. Quantitative easing was used by these countries because their risk-free short-term nominal interest rates (termed the rate in the US, or the in the UK) were either at or close to zero. During the peak of the financial crisis in 2008, the US Federal Reserve expanded its balance sheet dramatically by adding new assets and new liabilities without "sterilizing" these by corresponding subtractions. In the same period, the United Kingdom also used quantitative easing as an additional arm of its monetary policy to alleviate its financial crisis. US QE1, QE2, and QE3 The U.S. Federal Reserve System held between $700 billion and $800 billion of Treasury notes on its balance sheet before the recession. In late November 2008, the Federal Reserve started buying $600 billion in . By March 2009, it held $1.75 trillion of bank debt, mortgage-backed securities, and Treasury notes; this amount reached a peak of $2.1 trillion in June 2010. Further purchases were halted as the economy started to improve, but resumed in August 2010 when the Fed decided the economy was not growing robustly. After the halt in June, holdings started falling naturally as debt matured and were projected to fall to $1.7 trillion by 2012. The Fed's revised goal became to keep holdings at $2.054 trillion. To maintain that level, the Fed bought $30 billion in two- to ten-year Treasury notes every month. In November 2010, the Fed announced a second round of quantitative easing, buying $600 billion of by the end of the second quarter of 2011. The expression "QE2" became a ubiquitous nickname in 2010, used to refer to this second round of quantitative easing by US central banks. Retrospectively, the round of quantitative easing preceding QE2 was called "QE1". A third round of quantitative easing, "QE3", was announced on 13 September 2012. In an 11–1 vote, the Federal Reserve decided to launch a new $40 billion per month, open-ended bond purchasing program of agency mortgage-backed securities. Additionally, the (FOMC) announced that it would likely maintain the near zero "at least through 2015". According to NASDAQ.com, this is effectively a stimulus program that allows the Federal Reserve to relieve $40 billion per month of commercial housing market debt risk. Because of its open-ended nature, QE3 has earned the popular nickname of "QE-Infinity". |date=August 2018}} On 12 December 2012, the FOMC announced an increase in the amount of open-ended purchases from $40 billion to $85 billion per month. On 19 June 2013, announced a "tapering" of some of the Fed's QE policies contingent upon continued positive economic data. Specifically, he said that the Fed could scale back its bond purchases from $85 billion to $65 billion a month during the upcoming September 2013 policy meeting. He also suggested that the bond-buying program could wrap up by mid-2014. While Bernanke did not announce an interest rate hike, he suggested that if inflation followed a 2% target rate and unemployment decreased to 6.5%, the Fed would likely start raising rates. The stock markets dropped by approximately 4.3% over the three trading days following Bernanke's announcement, with the Dow Jones dropping 659 points between 19 and 24 June, closing at 14,660 at the end of the day on 24 June. On 18 September 2013, the Fed decided to hold off on scaling back its bond-buying program, and announced in December 2013 that it would begin to taper its purchases in January 2014. Purchases were halted on 29 October 2014 after accumulating $4.5 trillion in assets. United Kingdom During its QE programme, the bought from financial institutions, along with a smaller amount of relatively high-quality debt issued by private companies. The banks, insurance companies, and pension funds could then use the money they received for lending or even to buy back more bonds from the bank. Further, the central bank could lend the new money to private banks or buy assets from banks in exchange for currency. These measures have the effect of depressing interest yields on government bonds and similar investments, making it cheaper for business to raise capital. Another side effect is that investors will switch to other investments, such as shares, boosting their price and thus encouraging consumption. QE can reduce interbank overnight interest rates and thereby encourage banks to loan money to higher interest-paying and financially weaker bodies. Beginning in March 2009, the had purchased around £165 billion in assets as of September 2009 and around £175 billion in assets by the end of October 2009. At its meeting in November 2009, the (MPC) voted to increase total asset purchases to £200 billion. Most of the assets purchased have been UK government securities (gilts); the Bank has also purchased smaller quantities of high-quality private-sector assets. In December 2010, MPC member called for a £50 billion expansion of the Bank's quantitative easing programme, while his colleague has called for an increase in interest rates due to inflation being above the target rate of 2%. In October 2011, the Bank of England announced that it would undertake another round of QE, creating an additional £75 billion. In February 2012 it announced an additional £50 billion. In July 2012 it announced another £50 billion, bringing the total amount to £375 billion. The Bank has said that it will not buy more than 70% of any issue of government debt. This means that at least 30% of any issue of government debt will have to be purchased and held by institutions other than the Bank of England. In 2012 the Bank estimated that quantitative easing had benefited households differentially according to the assets they hold; richer households have more assets. In August 2016, the Bank of England said it would buy an additional £60bn of UK government bonds and £10bn of corporate bonds, to address uncertainty over Brexit and worries about productivity and economic growth. Eurozone and Switzerland The said that it would focus on buying covered bonds, a form of corporate debt. It signalled that its initial purchases would be worth about €60 billion in May 2009. At the beginning of 2013, the had the largest balance sheet relative to the size of the economy it was responsible for, at close to 100% of Switzerland's national output. A total of 12% of its reserves were in foreign equities. By contrast, the US Federal Reserve's holdings equalled about 20% of US GDP, while the European Central Bank's assets were worth 30% of GDP. In a dramatic change of policy, following the new , on 22 January 2015 , President of the European Central Bank, announced an "expanded asset purchase programme", where €60 billion per month of euro-area bonds from central governments, agencies and European institutions would be bought. Beginning in March 2015, the stimulus was planned to last until September 2016 at the earliest with a total QE of at least €1.1 trillion. Mario Draghi announced the programme would continue: "until we see a continued adjustment in the path of inflation", referring to the ECB's need to combat the growing threat of across the eurozone in early 2015. On 10 March 2016, the ECB increased its monthly bond purchases to €80 billion from €60 billion and started to include corporate bonds under the asset purchasing programme and announced new ultra-cheap four-year loans to banks. Sweden launched quantitative easing in February 2015, announcing government bond purchases of nearly 1.2 billion USD. The annualised inflation rate in January 2015 was minus 0.3 percent, and the bank implied that Sweden's economy could slide into deflation. Japan after 2007 and Abenomics In early October 2010, the Bank of Japan announced that it would examine the purchase of ¥5 trillion (US$60 billion) in assets. This was an attempt to push down the value of the yen against the US dollar to stimulate the domestic economy by making Japanese exports cheaper; however, it was ineffective. On 4 August 2011 the BOJ announced a unilateral move to increase the commercial bank current account balance from ¥40 trillion (US$504 billion) to a total of ¥50 trillion (US$630 billion). In October 2011, the Bank expanded its asset purchase program by ¥5 trillion ($66bn) to a total of ¥55 trillion. On 4 April 2013, the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand its asset purchase program by 60 to 70 trillion Yen a year. The Bank hoped to bring Japan from deflation to inflation, aiming for 2% inflation. The amount of purchases was so large that it was expected to double the money supply. This policy has been named , as a of and , the current . On 31 October 2014, the BOJ announced the expansion of its bond buying program, to now buy ¥80 trillion of bonds a year. Efficacy According to the (IMF), the quantitative easing policies undertaken by the central banks of the major developed countries since the beginning of the have contributed to the reduction in s following the . The IMF states that the policies also contributed to the improvements in market confidence and the bottoming-out of the recession in the economies in the second half of 2009. Economist argues that QE2 led to a rise in the stock market in the second half of 2010, which in turn contributed to increasing consumption and the strong performance of the US economy in late 2010. Former calculated that as of July 2012, there was "very little impact on the economy". has said that measures of quantitive easing such as large-scale asset purchases "have played a significant role in supporting economic activity". According to Neil Irwin, senior economic correspondent at , quantitative easing by the US Federal Reserve likely contributed to: i) Lower interest rates for corporate bonds and mortgage rates, helping support housing prices; ii) Higher stock market valuation, in terms of a higher price-earnings ratio for the S&P 500 index; iii) Increased inflation rate and investor's expectations for future inflation; iv) Higher rate of job creation; and v) Higher rate of GDP growth. Several studies published in the aftermath of the crisis found Large Scale Asset Purchases to have lowered long term interest rates on a variety of securities as well as lower credit risk. The impacts were to modestly increase inflation and boost GDP growth. Risks and side-effects Quantitative easing may cause higher inflation than desired if the amount of easing required is overestimated and too much money is created by the purchase of liquid assets. On the other hand, QE can fail to spur demand if banks remain reluctant to lend money to businesses and households. Even then, QE can still ease the process of as it lowers yields. However, there is a time lag between monetary growth and inflation; inflationary pressures associated with money growth from QE could build before the central bank acts to counter them. Inflationary risks are mitigated if the system's economy outgrows the pace of the increase of the money supply from the easing. If production in an economy increases because of the increased money supply, the value of a unit of currency may also increase, even though there is more currency available. For example, if a nation's economy were to spur a significant increase in output at a rate at least as high as the amount of debt monetized, the inflationary pressures would be equalized. This can only happen if member banks actually lend the excess money out instead of hoarding the extra cash. During times of high economic output, the central bank always has the option of restoring reserves to higher levels through raising interest rates or other means, effectively reversing the easing steps taken. Economists such as believe that quantitative easing creates unpredictability. Since the increase in bank reserves may not immediately increase the money supply if held as excess reserves, the increased reserves create the danger that inflation may eventually result when the reserves are loaned out. QE benefits debtors, since the interest rate has fallen, meaning there is less money to be repaid. However, it directly harms s as they earn less money from lower interest rates. also directly harms importers and consumers, as the cost of imported goods is inflated by the devaluation of the currency. Impact on savings and pensions In the , s have also argued that artificially low s induced by QE will have an adverse impact on the underfunding condition of pension funds, since "without returns that outstrip inflation, pension investors face the real value of their savings declining rather than ratcheting up over the next few years".In addition to this, low or negative interest rates create disincentives for saving. In a way this is an intended effect, since QE is intended to spur consumer spending. Capital flight According to reporter David Lynch, the new money from quantitative easing could be used by the banks to invest in emerging markets, commodity-based economies, commodities themselves, and non-local opportunities rather than to lend to local businesses that are having difficulty getting loans. Increased income and wealth inequality Critics frequently point to the redistributive effects of quantitative easing. For instance, British Prime Minister openly criticized QE in July 2016 for its regressive effects: "Monetary policy – in the form of super-low interest rates and quantitative easing – has helped those on the property ladder at the expense of those who can't afford to own their own home." Dhaval Joshi of wrote that "QE cash ends up overwhelmingly in profits, thereby exacerbating already extreme income inequality and the consequent social tensions that arise from it". Anthony Randazzo of the wrote that QE "is fundamentally a regressive redistribution program that has been boosting wealth for those already engaged in the financial sector or those who already own homes, but passing little along to the rest of the economy. It is a primary driver of income inequality". Those criticisms are partly based on some evidence provided by central banks themselves. In 2012, a Bank of England report showed that its quantitative easing policies had benefited mainly the wealthy, and that 40% of those gains went to the richest 5% of British households. In May 2013, President said that cheap money has made rich people richer, but has not done quite as much for working Americans. Answering similar criticisms expressed by , the President of the ECB once declared: Some of these policies may, on the one hand, increase inequality but, on the other hand, if we ask ourselves what the major source of inequality is, the answer would be unemployment. So, to the extent that these policies help – and they are helping on that front – then certainly an accommodative monetary policy is better in the present situation than a restrictive monetary policy. In July 2018, the ECB published a study showing that its QE programme increased the net wealth of the least well-off fifth of the population by 2.5 percent, compared with just 1.0 percent for the richest fifth. The study's credibility was however contested. Criticism by BRIC countries countries have criticized the QE carried out by the central banks of developed nations. They share the argument that such actions amount to and . As net exporters whose currencies are partially to the dollar, they protest that QE causes inflation to rise in their countries and penalizes their industries. The worlds leading emerging economies have urged Western governments to pursue "responsible" economic policies, in particular referring to quantitative easing. In a joint statement leaders of Russia, Brazil, India, China and South Africa, collectively BRICS, have condemned the policies of western economies saying "It is critical for advanced economies to adopt responsible macro-economic and financial policies, avoid creating excessive liquidity and undertake structural reforms to lift growth" as written in the Telegraph. Another criticism prevalent in Europe, is that it creates moral hazard for governments. Central banks’ purchases of government securities artificially depress the cost of borrowing. Normally, governments issuing additional debt see their borrowing costs rise, which discourages them from overdoing it. In particular, market discipline in the form of higher interest rates will cause a government like Italy’s, tempted to increase deficit spending, to think twice. Not so, however, when the central bank acts as bond buyer of last resort and is prepared to purchase government securities without limit. In such circumstances, market discipline will be incapacitated. Political risk , president of the , warned in 2010 that QE carries "the risk of being perceived as embarking on the slippery slope of . We know that once a central bank is perceived as targeting government debt yields at a time of persistent budget deficits, concern about debt monetization quickly arises." Later in the same speech, he stated that the Fed is monetizing the government debt: "The math of this new exercise is readily transparent: The Federal Reserve will buy $110 billion a month in Treasuries, an amount that, annualized, represents the projected deficit of the federal government for next year. For the next eight months, the nation's central bank will be monetizing the federal debt." remarked in 2002 that the US government had a technology called the printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), so that if rates reached zero and deflation threatened, the government could always act to ensure deflation was prevented. He said, however, that the government would not print money and distribute it "willy nilly" but would rather focus its efforts in certain areas (e.g., buying federal agency debt securities and mortgage-backed securities). According to economist , former president of the of Dallas, there is nothing wrong with printing money during a recession, and quantitative easing is different from traditional monetary policy "only in its magnitude and pre-announcement of amount and timing". Terminology Qualitative easing Professor of the has proposed a terminology to distinguish quantitative easing, or an expansion of a central bank's balance sheet, from what he terms qualitative easing, or the process of a central bank adding riskier assets to its balance sheet: ), holding constant the composition of its assets. Asset composition can be defined as the proportional shares of the different financial instruments held by the central bank in the total value of its assets. An almost equivalent definition would be that quantitative easing is an increase in the size of the balance sheet of the central bank through an increase in its monetary liabilities that holds constant the (average) liquidity and riskiness of its asset portfolio. Qualitative easing is a shift in the composition of the assets of the central bank towards less liquid and riskier assets, holding constant the size of the balance sheet (and the official policy rate and the rest of the list of usual suspects). The less liquid and more risky assets can be private securities as well as sovereign or sovereign-guaranteed instruments. All forms of risk, including credit risk (default risk) are included.}} Credit easing In introducing to the 2008–09 financial crisis, Fed Chairman distinguished the new program, which he termed " ", from Japanese-style quantitative easing. In his speech, he announced, Credit easing involves increasing the money supply by the purchase not of government bonds but of private-sector assets, such as corporate bonds and residential mortgage–backed securities. In 2010, the Federal Reserve purchased $1.25 trillion of mortgage-backed securities to support the sagging mortgage market. These purchases increased the monetary base in a way similar to a purchase of government securities. Monetary financing Quantitative easing has been nicknamed "printing money" by some members of the media, central bankers, and financial analysts. , chief executive officer of the , said: What the Bank of England does in quantitative easing is it prints money to buy government debt, ... So the Quantitative Easing has enabled governments, this government, to run a big budget deficit without killing the economy because the Bank of England has financed it. Central banks in most developed nations (e.g., the United Kingdom, the United States, Japan, and the Eurozone) are prohibited from buying government debt directly from the government and must instead buy it from the secondary market. This two-step process, where the government sells bonds to private entities that in turn sell them to the central bank, has been called "monetizing the debt" by many analysts. However, QE is a very different form of than it is commonly understood when talking about "money printing". Indeed, the term printing money usually implies that newly created money is used to directly finance government deficits or pay off government debt (also known as the government debt). With QE, the newly created money is usually used to buy financial assets other than government bonds. Also, the Federal Reserve has mostly "sterilized" its bond purchases by paying interest to banks for reserve deposits. This removes money from circulation previously added by the Fed's bond purchases. The net effect is to raise bond prices, lowering borrowing rates for mortgages and other loans, without an inflationary increase in the money supply. The distinguishing characteristic between QE and debt monetization is that with the former, the central bank creates money to stimulate the economy, not to finance government spending (although an indirect effect of QE is to lower rates on sovereign bonds). Also, the central bank has the stated intention of reversing the QE when the economy has recovered (by selling the government bonds and other financial assets back into the market). The only effective way to determine whether a central bank has monetized debt is to compare its performance relative to its stated objectives. Many central banks have adopted an inflation target. It is likely that a central bank is monetizing the debt if it continues to buy government debt when inflation is above target and if the government has problems with debt financing. Alternative policies QE for the people In response to concerns that QE is failing to create sufficient demand, particularly in the Eurozone, a number of economists have called for "QE for the people". Instead of buying government bonds or other securities by creating bank reserves, as the Federal Reserve and Bank of England have done, some suggest that central banks could make payments directly to households (in a similar fashion as 's ). Economists and argue in that this is the most effective solution for the Eurozone, particularly given the restrictions on fiscal policy. They argue that based on the evidence from tax rebates in the United States, less than 5% of GDP transferred by the ECB to the household sector in the Eurozone would suffice to generate a recovery, a fraction of what it intends to be done under standard QE. Oxford economist, , has suggested that this could be legally implemented using the electoral register. On 27 March 2015, 19 economists including , , , and have signed a letter to the calling on the to adopt a more direct approach to its quantitative easing plan announced earlier in February. In November 2015, a group of NGOs led by launched a campaign 'Quantitative Easing for People' more than 65 economists supported the campaign, stating that: "Instead of flooding financial markets, money created through QE should be spent into the real economy, on essential public investment such as green infrastructure, affordable housing and/or distributed as a citizens’ dividend to all residents." Those ideas were also discussed at the European Parliament on 17 February 2016 A few months later, the ECB recognized that helicopter money could be a feasible option under condition that such programme do not substitute to "obligation of the public sector vis-à-vis third parties." A variant of QE for the people is , a policy proposed by during the , which would require the to create money to finance government investment via a National Investment Bank. Altering debt maturity structure Based on research by economist Eric Swanson reassessing the effectiveness of the US action in 1961 known as , has posted that a similar restructuring of the supply of different types of debt would have an effect equal to that of QE. Such action would allow finance ministries (e.g., the ) a role in the process now reserved for central banks. Neo-Fisherism Neo-Fisherism, based on theories made by reasons that the solution to low inflation is not quantitative easing, but paradoxically to increase interest rates. This is due to the fact that if interest rates continue to decline, banks will lose customers and less money will be invested back into the economy. In a situation of low inflation and high debt, customers will feel more secure holding on to cash or converting cash into commodities, which fails to stimulate economic growth. If the money supply increases from quantitative easing, customers will subsequently default in the face of higher prices, thus resetting the low inflation and worsening the low inflation issue. Fiscal Policy Economics became popular after the Great Depression. The idea is that in an economy with low inflation and high unemployment (especially ), will stimulate consumer spending, which increases business profits, which increases investment. Keynesians promote methods like , redevelopment, and increases in the to increase demand and inflation. References Category:Monetary system